Cathie Wood sold $COIN 🤔!!! wdyt??? + was today the Bull-o-meter trigger?

Traffic troubles are to blame for this v delayed substack

🇺🇸Paul Mampilly @MampillyGuru

Finally arrived at the Greenville SC Supercharger. Probably one of @Tesla slowest in their network😑

The traffic in and around Greenville, SC is amazing 🤯. Like really foks I was traveling at 35 mph for an hour plus as I approached Greenville. And then the charger was crazy slow. So this substack is going to be short, sweet and incredible 🤓

First order of business - Coinbase

Cathie Wood sold COIN 0.00%↑ OMG 🤯🤨 🧐

May Bo Hubbard @mbhubbard

So Cathy wood dumped Coinbase 😭 I’m down huge on this one. Thoughts about $coin? Everyone seems to be is moving to Binance. @MampillyGuru

Joel Langer @3DLanger

Hey @MampillyGuru and @IanDyerGuru, what is your take on $COIN? Still a good position? I saw that $ARKK sold a significant amount of it. Thanks for all you do! Appreciate all your hard work!

Ian and I chatted about this before I left this morning. You know folks, no one knows why CW and Ark Innovation sold $COIN. Personally, I believe it’s to lock in a tax loss that can be used offset gains in future periods. CW (like us because of ME) bought COIN 0.00%↑ at a price that is significantly higher than where it is today. That provides the opportunity to lock in a loss, that can be used to offset gains in the future for CW and personally that’s what I think is the reason for her selling. Remember, I do not know CW or anyone at Ark but that’s my best guess. I say this because this is something I did when I ran hedge funds and mutual funds. Sometimes we sold to lock in losses and then bought back in.

🇺🇸Paul Mampilly @MampillyGuru

@mbhubbard She could buy it back it in a month and use the loss to offset future gains. Mgrs buy and sell for all kinds of reasons. I still like $COIN

Galaxy @LiWen60729115

@MampillyGuru @mbhubbard Paul, What do you think about Sec probing on coinbase selling unregistered securities? I think that might trigger Ark to sell tens of millions coinbase shares.

Imo this is FUD because all exchanges have this problem not just COIN 0.00%↑ including Binance, Kraken and any others. The SEC (the regulator for stock mkts) is trying to prove that all crypto coins are securities and this is one way that they are trying do this. The SEC imo is pursuing a “turf war” with another regulator — the CFTC (the regulator for futures and options).

Without getting too far into it, these two government regulators both want to regulate crypto. If crypto is a “security” as the SEC insists it will fall under its jurisdiction. If crypto is a commodity then the CFTC will be the crypto regulator. Why are they fighting over this? Whoever gets to regulate crypto will get bigger resources from the government - budgets, staff, political power.

The crypto folks prefer the CFTC over the SEC. Imo the SEC’s strategy is pissing off enough people and politicians that it’s likely to lose. And if this news had come out during a bull market, no one would care. In a bear market everything is scrutinized and seen through the most bearish, pessimistic, negative, lens possible. Personally, I still like COIN 0.00%↑

And now is a good time & place to mention THIS 🥸

Legal stuff written in plain english. Anything you read below is OPINION not investment/financial advice. Your money, your responsibility. Have to say this right up front and make sure you know that anything we say is just our opinion based on our experience, understanding, research etc. We can get things wrong, make mistakes and sometimes in markets crashes, crises, losses definitely are part of the game. That’s called RISK and its up to you to figure out how much risk you want to take.

TODAY’s market action and where we stand in the BULL/BEAR spectrum

So the Fed, raised interest rates by 75 bps and many stocks especailly mega big gianto stocks like GOOGL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ 🚀🚀🚀

So is it the coast all clear? Would Paul’s Bull-o-Meter be set to BULL mkt now?

Not yet 🤦‍♂️

Remember this is what we want to see before we pull that Bull-o-Meter switch:

1. we want to see ARKK 0.00%↑ trade at $50 consistently. Why? Because ARKK 0.00%↑ is the best proxy for the stocks we own and like. And if ARKK 0.00%↑ is being bought at $50 its a sign that other growth stocks like TSLA 0.00%↑ SQ 0.00%↑ and others will start finding buyers. Why? Because even though it’s “irrational,” studies show that traders/investors are affected by psychological factors like round numbers like $50 and $100. So, consistent buying of ARKK 0.00%↑ would imo both show that there is buying interest for growth and ARKK. ARKK 0.00%↑ is still below $50, so this box not ticked ❌

2. we want to see two bond ETFs — TLT 0.00%↑ (represents the 30 yr treasury bond) and IEF 0.00%↑ (represents the 10 yr treasury bond) both break their current mini trading range on rising volume (follow thru phenomenon that I explained in a previous substack email). Why? Because these two ETFs represent long time frames — 30 yrs & 10 yrs — and seeing people buy these two ETFs and bidding them up on rising volume will show that bond investors DISAGREE with the Fed’s inflation focus. Why? Because if inflation is truly a long term issue, holding bonds for 10 yrs or 30 yrs is dumb? Why? Because inflation destroys the value of money long term. So giving money now to get it back in 10 yrs or 30 yrs is terrible idea. Remember that bonds pay you interest and then give you back your money when they mature. (Sorry I’m rushing to finish this substack else I’d do more explaining). Bottom line is that this box is not yet ticked, although its getting close. ❌

3. we want the Fed to tone down its rhetoric about inflation and start to formally acknowledge that a recession/deflation scenario is unfolding. On this one the Fed is starting to soften its tone about inflation and raising interest rates. But the Fed still insists there is no recession. and it’s still planning to raise rates. so this one is still a work in progress and is not yet ticked ❌

Sorry if today’s email is a bit technical and if it’s rougher around the edges than yesterday or the day before! Just a reminder that for now, it’s still just me and Ian doing videos, tracking our stocks. We are actively trying to figure out how to get our awesome analysts back to working for us and we are working on putting together a plan. Stay tuned for details over the next few weeks.

I’m driving back from South Carolina tomorrow, so the substack will probably be late again 🤷‍♂️. But follow me on Twitter if you want to send me a question or comment on a stock that you want me to follow up on. Or a comment that you want our #stronghands #BOP community to see.

I always like to end with LOVE ❤️❤️❤️

Why? WHY not? In the end ONLY love remains.

We ❤️❤️❤️ U. And we are grateful 🙏🙏🙏 for your support.

🧡Made with LOVE by Ian, Kate, Nicholas, Dean, Brittany and Paul🧡