Focus on the Numbers — Not 🙅‍♂️ the Narrative

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What you read/watch/hear is OPINION, not financial/investment advice. Treat it no different than when you read/watch/hear your favorite author/YouTuber/podcaster. Despite our best efforts, we get things wrong and make mistakes. Investing is risky. There is no guarantee you will make money. Your investments may lose value. That’s RISK. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Employees, contractors, and owners of ATG Digital, LLC own/trade/transact in the stocks, options, and crypto that are the subject of our trade alerts, updates, reports, and commentaries. We cannot give you personalized financial advice because we are NOT financial advisors. It’s on you to decide how much/when/what to buy/sell based on YOUR financial needs, plans, and risk preferences. There are no guarantees. Loss of your capital is an outcome that you should evaluate carefully with a financial advisor before you trade, speculate, or invest. It's your money and your responsibility.

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#StrongHands 🙌 #BOP 🚀 Nation Update ️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️️❤️️

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To aid you on your journey to financial freedom, we have five paid plans starting at $9.99 for you to consider.

Just visit atgdigital.media to see which plan is the best fit for your journey!

Substack 🥞 subscribers: 5,603 (+4)

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Paul Mampilly: We’re Now in an Up ⬆️ Cycle for Interest Rates

The last interest rate up cycle was between approximately 1940 and 1981. 

“Up cycle,” as I'm referring to it here, means that rates from here will make higher highs and lower lows — a rising trend. 

Long-term interest rate cycles are between 40 and 50 years, so we’re talking about a very long-term phenomenon. 

Let’s go back to the last up interest rate cycle between 1940 and 1981. Using 3-month treasury bills as the measure, rates went from 0% in 1940 to 14% in 1981.

Focus on the Numbers 🔢 Rather Than the Narratives

The background for this rate rise between 1940 and 1981 was massive events and changes — World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Great Society movement, the rise of the Baby Boomer generation, the OPEC oil embargo, the delinking of the dollar from the gold standard, etc.

The widely discussed "Great Inflation" period comes at the end of this period toward the end of the 1970s and early 1980s.

It's striking to see no 1:1 real-time correlation between the narrative (wars and social change) and the numbers (rates and deficits) in the last up interest rate cycle.

Last Up Cycle Was Slow & Steady — Then Sudden 😯

What you see is that interest rates rose slowly and steadily from 1940 to 1968. Then, from 1968, there was a rapid jump to 1979, with President Nixon breaking the dollar gold standard. 

Finally, there was a last surge higher in 1980 and 1981 as markets panicked and priced in higher rates and inflation forever. 

You'll see that 3-month treasury bills in 1968 were 5.34%. That means it took 28 years (from 1940 to 1968) for 3-month treasury bills to jump to over 5% in the last up cycle! 

This Is Very Different From Our Current Up Cycle

Compare it to what we’ve just experienced in 2022 and 2023. In our current period, rates have gone from 0% in December 2021 to 5.35% in October 2023.

What took 28 years in the last interest rate up cycle was done in less than two years! The contrast is astonishing. 

Equally astonishing is that the economy is still growing and not in a recession. 

What does it mean? What’s the future for asset prices, given all this?

I Believe Our Up Cycle Is Setting Us Up for a Different Path 🛣️

In my opinion, this sudden rapid surge sets us up for a long period (at least 7 to 10 years) where rates stay flat. By flat, I don’t mean that they’ll never move — they’ll shift up and down in a fairly tight range.

Now, this is a judgment call based on my understanding of interest rates, economies, and cash/debt positions of everyone from government, corporations, individuals, etc. 

But, bottom line, I believe we’ll see a period where interest rates stay in a flattish range.

Conditions Favor Stocks With High-Return 📈 Businesses

If that’s right, we’ll see markets adjust to these conditions. And stocks and crypto that benefit from these conditions will thrive. 

What are those assets? 

Well, it’s assets that can sustainably return at least 8% to 10%, or at least 4% over the rates you can get from bonds and savings accounts. 

“Sustainably” means that they don’t need more money from investors and that their businesses can generate the capital they need to grow.

The stocks and crypto we have in our ATG Digital model portfolios meet this criteria. And many of them, I believe, can generate returns of 20% or higher. 

Tailwind for Our Companies From Legacy Companies’ Struggles

I believe this because higher interest rates are punitive to legacy companies. 

This is because they consume and use up huge amounts of capital.

Legacy companies have used lower interest rates to stay competitive and stave off our innovation-led companies for over a decade. 

But this massive advantage is now gone. Legacy companies will need to cut costs and reduce capacity even as our companies ramp up to compete with them. 

P.U.M.P.E.D. — Stocks That Benefit From Current Conditions

In my latest YouTube video, I featured six companies in an acronym portfolio called P.U.M.P.E.D. 

They are: 

• Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR 0.00%↑) 

• Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER 0.00%↑) 

• MicroStrategy Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR 0.00%↑) 

• PayPal Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: PYPL 0.00%↑) 

• Exact Sciences Corporation (Nasdaq: EXAS 0.00%↑)

• 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE: DDD 0.00%↑) 

All these companies benefit from the new environment.

We’re Pumped 💪 on This New Environment

The P.U.M.P.E.D. companies will prosper in this new environment, but they aren’t the only companies we hold that will. 

To see what other innovative growth companies we hold and to receive regular updates, consider subscribing here!

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#GBC100: Monday, October 16, 2023

The #GBC100 is up 1.64% today.

With markets shifting in our direction, there isn’t anything new to write about. So, just to let you know, we won’t always be commenting on the performance of the #GBC100 daily. 

However, we’ll be updating the performance, and we want to remind folks that our goal is to turn the #GBC100 into an ETF that offers a one-stock way to invest the ATG way — in innovation and growth.

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Bald Man 👨‍🦲 Speculating

Paul is always putting out exciting content . . . but have you checked out his podcast?

In a recent episode of Bald Man Speculating, he talks about why growth stocks are set up to rocket higher. 🚀

You can check it out here! 👇

You don’t want to miss out on all the great stuff Paul is doing on his podcast — so be sure to follow Bald Man Speculating on Spotify by clicking here! ⬅️

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Tomorrow: We’ll hear the latest from Dan. 🤩 Be sure to check it out!

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In last Friday’s Substack, Dan talked about Silver Tier company Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR).

As he explained, PLTR 0.00%↑ is a leader in artificial intelligence (AI). 🤖

And one subscriber had this to say:

Mary, we’re glad to hear this! We’re #BOP 🚀 (bold, optimistic, positive) on this stock and can’t wait to see where the coming bull market takes it.

On Monday, October 16, 2023, we look forward to seeing our stocks soar!

❤️️ This Substack made — by US, for YOU — with love. ❤️️

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