Kickstarter LAUNCH 🚀 date announcement tomorrow

normal🎢 day | ✅ update | Katie's BUY plan

UP! 🧗‍♂️ ⏫ Rock climbing reminds me that life & markets are ups & downs

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📣 Our ⚽ Kickstarter 🥅 date is being locked down!!!

Final details being taken care of. We’ll give you the EXACT time and date it goes LIVE tomorrow!!!! Come back to this exact spot 🎯 tomorrow❗

Fed release date event betting 🏇 is driving markets today

I told you recently that markets currently are being driven by event betting. Last Thursday was for the release of CPI data — inflation information. And today it’s for the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting.

And tomorrow we have employment data being released. When these kinds of “releases” take on huge importance, hedge funds and futures/options speculators will line up to take bets. And then once the news is released (event is over), they will cash out. Then the markets will look to stabilize with regular buyers coming in to set prices. Now, at some point, things will turn over and macro events will have less say than they do rn. But for rn, this kind of event betting is driving market prices.

“down” 🎢 days are normal in markets

Attaching your emotions to stock prices is terrible for you. It’s human to “root” for higher prices. But, it’s then human to feel disappointment. But then we often go and act on this disappointment. That’s trouble for your LT financial well being.

We all KNOW that prices swing daily. Up, down, up, up, up, DOWN. Any chart of any stock, crypto, investment shows you this. Still, it’s impossible to not get caught up in “rooting” for gains. Then, the key is to stop yourself from acting on whatever impulse that it creates in you.

On “down” days like today, KNOW that your instinct is going to be to SELL and cash out. On a “up” day it’s to buy and go all in on that stock you’ve been watching for weeks. Studies show that most ST traders end up selling right AT the end of the down move and buying near the end of the UP move. That’s because “downs” make us panic, and “ups” make us confident.

Bottom Line: Stock prices have been rising for three weeks. So, our “rooting” 🌳sympathies as you can imagine are pretty strong in the wanting more gains NOW column. So, just be mindful of where you are so that you don’t swing with the market!

Katie’s $1 a day X8 BUY plan takes the emotions😬 out of buying

What if you took the emotion out of this and bought a little everday? This is a plan that Katie tweeted to me. And imo this is a winning plan for many of us. Not just financially but also for managing your emotions. Your speed maybe $10 or $100 a day or $1000 per day. The key is to buy consistently and evenly AND to keep your emotions under control. This plan is especially effective in a bear market imo where daily prices swings are 5% - 10%!

Katie M. Langer @katie_langer

@MampillyGuru Paul, what do you think about dollar cost averaging in these market conditions? I’ve been buying $1/day in 8 different positions for two months or so and plan to continue until I reach my equal weight. Thoughts?

🇺🇸Paul Mampilly @MampillyGuru

@katie_langer That's how we did did our buying and selling in our hedge fund with the goal of capturing the harmonic mean during the period of buying.

Katie M. Langer @katie_langer

@MampillyGuru Thanks for the reply Paul!!!! I have found it to be a low stress way of building my positions. I don’t even notice it leaving my checking account. I love that Robinhood makes it easy for “investing minnows” to invest like hedge funds on a miniature scale. Glad you approve!!!

🇺🇸Paul Mampilly @MampillyGuru

@katie_langer 💯 💯💯 $1 a day is perfect. buy slow/low and just let it be. make your money from time not timing. everyone started as a minnow including me.

On “down” days I like to check our bull mkt checklist 📋

1. ARKK 0.00%↑ trading above $50?

   ARKK 0.00%↑ after trading above $50 for 7 out of the 9 last trading days is back under $50 again. I expected that there would some "testing" of this $50 price. Why? Because from experience and behavioral finance research, round numbers like $50 tend to draw casual buyers in. And those buyers won't stick around for long especially if prices get marked down. So as a result there is always some amount of "digestion" that happens at this kind of price level. But, I believe that the price action we have seen -- ARKK 0.00%↑ at $50 for 7/9 days -- does fulfill the checklist requirement ✅ . Next step, will be to see ARKK 0.00%↑ clear $50 and any future "digestion" period will see it buyers come in and buy to "support" the $50 price.

2. IEF 0.00%↑ (10 yr US Treasury bond ETF) and TLT 0.00%↑ (30 yr US Treasury bond ETF)

The second condition on the Bull market checklist is bid up buying for these two bond ETFs. Remember that bond prices are a bit weird. Bond prices go UP when interest go lower. I've gone into that a few times before so won't do it again here. But just try and lock that into your mind for now.

Now, these two ETFs have been hovering around the prices they hit about a month ago. From here, we want to see them both be bid up in price. That's because it would mean that bond buyers feel like inflation is not a concern. The thinking here is that, LT bond buyers would not buy bonds for 10 or 30 years if they felt inflation is a genuine problem LT. This is also ✅ in my book in terms of meeting the requirements of the checklist.

The reason it's a ✅ is because these two ETFs have been trading at these levels for nearly a month. That's pretty solid in terms of buying. Second, inflation data is starting to show that general inflation expectations are going down. So, we have good reason to expect bond prices to keep rising and LT yields to keep going down.

3. Fed rhetoric. We want to hear the Fed start to back off from it’s very militant view about inflation. And we would also like to hear them acknowledge some of the weakness we have been telling you about — inventory issues at TGT 0.00%↑ WMT 0.00%↑ etc. We also would like them to let the markets KNOW that they do not believe that LT inflation is a genuine problem. This checklist item is not yet checked off because the Fed continues to be quite militant on inflation. But with today's release of the minutes we're getting nearer to ticking this off. But not yet. ❌

🇺🇸Paul Mampilly @MampillyGuru

Fed minutes getting closer to us ticking "Fed rhetoric" off our 3 part Bull market checklist 📋

Bottom line: Many of our stocks have hit bottom imo. But they can’t be sustainably bid up in price till BUYERS feel comfortable to come in and buy. Buyers we think will come in to buy when our 3 part checklist is fully ticked.

We believe that our 3 part test both measures and guides as to when/if/as that is happening. Please read previous substacks/watch Youtube videos on my channel on this for more background on our checklist.

Final note: You can see this last period of the bear market as a last chance/period to buy at low prices, if you’re still buying. Or you can see it as a period of waiting before prices get bid higher and the new BULL market launches.

📣 Once again, check back in tomorrow when we’ll give you the OFFICIAL time/day that our Kickstarter goes live!

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