3 Warning Signs to Watch 👀⚠️
Catch Dan & Dean in the latest Wealth X episode!
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#ATG 🙌 #BOP 🚀 Nation Update❤️️
Hi, I’m Paul Mampilly.
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Episode 3 of Wealth X Podcast Is Ready
ATG Digital analysts, Dan and Dean, are back with the latest episode of Wealth X!
Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) hitting all-time highs, Chairman Jerome Powell potentially resigning . . .
This episode covers it all!
Click the video below or the button to watch!
Paul: This Rally’s Running on Empty 😬
The post-COVID boom brought record corporate profits and surging bull markets.
During periods like these, people tend to cheerlead high prices.
But in my view, now is the time to proceed with caution.
I see multiple warning signs flashing red — signals of an imminent turning point in the markets.
From my experience, they’re signaling that caution — not cheerleading — is the smarter stance right now.
While I can appreciate a true pump, that’s not what we’re seeing in the market today after a period of new all-time highs . . .
I’m usually #BOP — bullish, optimistic, and positive — when real demand is pushing stocks higher.
From what I’ve seen, after a string of all-time highs fueled by momentum alone, price action often decouples from actual demand.
And that’s exactly what’s playing out right now.
Price momentum is fueling this rally. Not fundamentals.
And that’s a red flag in my book.
Avoid This Red Flag 🚩
While it’s often overlooked, understanding investor psychology is critical when managing risk.
Momentum-driven markets like what we’re in now thrive on visualization.
This is a psychological phenomenon where investors visualize continued gains — represented by ballooning account balances.
This makes them averse to selling at peaks and tops.
It’s the opposite of what happens in a crash: falling prices and dropping account balances freeze investors from buying at bargain-low prices.
In my view, one of the reasons for the current market environment is the large number of new investors who entered markets.
The financial industry regulatory authority (FINRA) estimates that 20% to 30% of investors only entered markets in the last five years (since COVID).
They’ve never lived through the internet bubble crash followed by the brutal standstill from 2000 to 2016, or the carnage of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.
To be clear: I’m not calling for a 2008 or 2000-style collapse.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised by a grinding sideways market as certain sectors boom, leaving popular stocks behind on a relative basis — a bit like what happened in the 1970s (no long-term movement).
I’ve laid out the near-term catalysts for this in multiple ATG Digital updates, Youtube videos, and Substacks, but it’s worth revisiting them today . . .
Tariff Pressure Targets Profits 💸
While most headlines focus on tariffs increasing inflation, I believe the real hit will be to corporate profit margins.
Tariffs will crunch these record-level margins, which led to sky-high stock prices with record-high valuations.
In my view, the $250 billion in estimated tariffs this year will hit profits — not inflation.
And that’s a setup for investor disappointment, particularly for those who bid popular stocks to record highs.
I shared my take on this in a recent X post:
Now, at ATG Digital, we don’t own the S&P 500 or the stocks that dominate this index portfolio.
In fact, our portfolios are focused on stocks of smaller, cheaper companies.
Also, while many of you make big bets on one or two stocks, please remember that each of our stock picks are intended to be part of a 50+ investment portfolio.
Remember, concentration heightens risks.
So if our portfolios are diversified away from the S&P 500, the “Magnificent Seven”, and the riskier parts of the market, why bring this up?
Because it’s still critical to pay attention to these benchmarks.
You see, professional investors tend to sell everything when the S&P 500 dips.
If you’ve been in markets long enough, you likely know this already!
Investors of all levels panic and sell first, then ask questions.
It’s a “shoot first, ask later” mentality — pushing the prices of many investments down.
Even solid investments can get temporarily crushed.
Red Alert 🚨 for a Market Top
Another cautionary signal is skyrocketing margin debt.
This borrowing against stocks hit $920 billion in May 2025, per FINRA:
Historically, peaks in margin debt point to speculative excess and are a classic harbinger of market corrections.
Why?
Because leveraged positions are in weak hands.
When prices fall, they’re forced to sell — often triggering cascade-style selloffs.
Even more concerning is that big money managers look overexposed!
We can view this by looking at the NAAIM Exposure Index.
On July 2, 2025, it surged to 99.30%.
This shows that active investment managers are all-in — fully exposed to equities:
This near-maximum bet historically precedes peaks, tops, and turning points.
A Storm on the Horizon? ⛈️
Bottom line: Several signals point to potential trouble brewing for the markets.
So when will the storm hit?
Well, as anyone who deals in markets knows — timing is the hardest part of investing.
No one knows the precise day, week, or even month it could unfold.
We can only point you to the signals we’re watching and warn you that this is a time to be careful, cautious, and thoughtful.
If you’re the kind of investor that will regret not acting if my warnings prove correct, then it may be a good time to take some profits or raise cash.
Remember, at ATG Digital, we’re information providers — not financial advisers.
We share insights and information, not personalized financial advice.
So any decision or action you take is your responsibility.
But if you’re looking for more timely insights to navigate the markets, then look no further!
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#OGI100: Monday, July 14, 2025
The #OGI100 is up 1.54% today.
Created on September 22, 2022, the #OGI100 is an index/portfolio comprised of opportunity, growth, innovation, and crypto-related investments.
Our goals with the #OGI100 are twofold . . .
First, we want readers to get a sense of what our investments are doing in the market, because they can sometimes perform very differently than traditional indices (like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100).
Second, we’d like to eventually turn the #OGI100 into an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
That way, instead of owning hundreds of growth stocks, you can get exposure to ATG Digital thinking — in opportunity, growth, innovation, and crypto — all in one place.
To learn more or to express your support for the launch of an ETF (by completing a poll), click here.
Tomorrow: Dan’s covering an oil and gas play you don’t want to miss!
Oops, BTC Did It Again?!
If you read Our Very First OGI100 Review last week, then you know we celebrated Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) hitting a new all-time high.
Well, as of Monday, July 14, it seems BTC has yet to reach a ceiling!
See for yourself:
On Monday, July 14, 2025, we’d love to hear from you! 🫵
❤️ This Substack was made — by US, for YOU — with love. ❤️
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What you read/watch/hear is OPINION, not financial/investment advice. Treat it no different than when you read/watch/hear your favorite author/YouTuber/podcaster. Despite our best efforts, we get things wrong and make mistakes. Investing is risky. There is no guarantee you will make money. Your investments may lose value. That’s RISK. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Employees, contractors, and owners of ATG Digital, LLC own/trade/transact in the stocks, options, and crypto that are the subject of our trade alerts, updates, reports, and commentaries. We cannot give you personalized financial advice because we are NOT financial advisors. It’s on you to decide how much/when/what to buy/sell based on YOUR financial needs, plans, and risk preferences. There are no guarantees. Loss of your capital is an outcome that you should evaluate carefully with a financial advisor before you trade, speculate, or invest. It's your money and your responsibility.